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  • Henrik Hindby Koszyczarek

Hundredvis af forskere i åbent brev: Klimaforandringerne ér menneskeskabte


"Menneskeskabte klimaforandringer er et faktum," lyder det fra flere hundrede forskere, herunder adskillige Nobelprisvindere, i et åbent brev, hvor de advarer USA mod at trække sig ud af klimaaftalen indgået i Paris.

Godt nok er klimaaftalen fra Paris tæt på at kunne træde i kraft, men helt i mål er den ikke. I et åbent brev opfordrer 376 forskere, heraf 30 Nobelprisvindere, til handling, og samtidig advarer de mod, at man trækker sig fra aftalen. Noget, som den republikanske præsidentkandidat i USA, Donald Trump, agter at gøre.

Globalen bringer her det åbne brev oversat til dansk:

"Menneskeskabte klimaforandringer er ikke tro, svindel eller en konspiration. Det er den fysiske virkelighed. Fossile brændstoffer satte gang i den industrielle revolution. Men afbrændingen af olie, kul og gas førte også til størstedelen af den historiske forøgelse af drivhusgasser i atmosfæren. Denne øgning af drivhusgasser ændrer Jordens klima.

Vores fingeraftryk på klimasystemerne er synlige overalt. De ses i opvarmningen af verdenshavene, på landets overflader og i den nedre del af atmosfæren. De kan ses i en stigning af verdenshavene, ændrede regnvejsmønstre, smeltning af den arktiske is, forsuring af havet og mange andre aspekter af klimasystemet. Menneskeskabte klimaforandringer er ikke noget, der ligger fjernt fra vores hverdag og kun påvirker det fjerne Arktis. Det er her og nu, i vores eget land, i vores egne stater og i vores egne lokalområder.

Undervejs i præsidentvalgets primærkampagne (i USA, red.) blev det påstået, at Jorden ikke bliver varmere, eller at varmen udelukkende skyldes naturlige årsager, som mennesket ikke har indflydelse på. Disse påstande hænger ikke sammen med virkeligheden.

Andre har påstået, at man ikke bør gribe ind, før vi med fuldstændig sikkerhed kender til menneskets påvirkninger på klimaet. Fuldstændig sikkerhed kan ikke opnås. Vi er dog sikre på - uden for enhver tvivl - at problemet med menneskeskabte klimaforandringer er reel, alvorlig og umiddelbar, og at dette problem udgør markante risici; for vores evne til at trives og bygge en bedre fremtid, for den nationale sikkerhed, for menneskets helbred og fødevareproduktion og til det sammenvævede system inden for økosystemer.

Den basale videnskab om, hvordan drivhusgasser har en opvarmende effekt, er klarlagt og har været det i over et århundrede. I sidste ende var det styrken bag den basale videnskab, der fik verdens regeringer til at drage til Paris i december 2015. De tog til Paris på trods af klare forskelligheder i nationernes styreform, den nationale egeninteresse, ansvaret for tidligere udledninger af drivhusgasser og sårbarheden over for fremtidige klimaforandringer. Lederne i over 190 lande anerkendte problemet med, at menneskeskabte klimaforandringer er en fare for nuværende og fremtidige borgere på denne planet. De forpligtede sig nationalt til at håndtere dette problem. Det var et lille, men historisk og vitalt skridt mod en mere oplyst forvaltning af Jordens klimasystem.

Fra studier af ændringer i temperaturerne og havstigninger i løbet af de seneste millioner år ved vi, at klimaet har tipping points (herefter følger voldsomme forandringer, red.). Hvor tæt vi er på at have nået disse tipping points er usikkert. Vi ved dog, at hurtig opvarmning af planeten øger risikoen for at nå et klimatisk point of no return, muligvis vil igangsætte store ændringer i havstrømme, massive tab af is og udryddelse af dyrearter. Klimakonsekvenserne ved at nå forbi disse smertegrænser er ikke begrænset til de næste par valgperioder. De varer ved i tusindvis af år.

Det politisk system har også tipping points. Derfor er det med stor bekymring, at republikanernes præsidentkandidat har talt for, at USA trækker sig fra klimaaftalen. Et "Parexit" vil sende et klart signal til resten af verden: "USA er ligeglad med menneskeskabte klimaforandringer. I må klare jer selv". En sådan beslutning vil gøre det langt sværere at udvikle effektive globale strategier for at håndtere og tilpasse sig klimaændringerne. Konsekvenserne ved at trække sig ud af det globale samfund vil være store og langvarige - for vores planets klima og for den internationale troværdighed om USA.

USA kan og bør indtage en markant rolle i at udvikle innovative løsninger på at reducere udledningerne af drivhusgasser. Lande, der finder innovative måder at gøre energisystemer rene og absorbere CO2 på, vil blive de økonomiske ledere af det 21. århundrede. Ved at træde ud af Paris-aftalen bliver det mindre sandsynligt, at USA vil indtage en global lederrolle både politisk, økonomisk og moralsk. Vi har ikke råd til at krydse dette tipping point.

De følgende underskrivere af dette brev har underskrevet det som individuelle Nas-medlemmer og ikke på vegne af Nas (National Academy of Sciences) eller deres institutioner."

Benjamin D. Santer, Member, National Academy of Sciences^ Kerry A. Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology^ George B. Field, Harvard University^ Ray Weymann, Carnegie Institution for Science Emeritus^ Peter C. Agre, Johns Hopkina Malaria Research Institute Bruce Alberts, University of California San Francisco Thomas D. Albright, The Salk institute for Biological Studies Richard M. Amasino, University of Wisconsin-Madison Jim Anderson, Harvard University Phillip W. Anderson, Princeton University Roger Angel, University of Arizona Luc E. Anselin, University of Chicago Fred Anson, California Institute of Technology David Arnett, Univerity of Arizona Mary T. Kalin Arroyo, University of Chile Greg Asner, Carnegie Institution for Science Sir Michael Atiyah, University of Edinburgh Tanya M. Atwater, University of California Santa Barbara Francisco J. Ayala, University of California Irvine George Backus, University of California San Diego Neta Bahcall, Princeton University Steven Balbus, University of Oxford David Baltimore, California Institute of Technology Allen Bard, University of Texas Sir David Baulcombe, University of Cambridge Adriaan Bax, Member, National Academy of Sciences Barry J. Beaty, Colorado State University Michael Bender, Princeton University Charles L. Bennett, Johns Hopkins University Michael V.L. Bennett, Albert Einstein College of Medicine Jeffrey L. Bennetzen, University of Georgia John Bercaw, California Institute of Technology May R. Berenbaum, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Howard Berg, Harvard University Robert Bergman, University of California Berkeley Jacques E. Blamont, Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales Roger Blandford, Stanford University Michael R Botchan, University of California Berkeley Ed A. Boyle, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Daniel Branton, Member, National Academy of Sciences Winslow Briggs, Carnegie Institution for Science Steven P. Briggs, University of California San Diego Wallace Broecker, Columbia University Axel T. Brunger, Stanford University Douglas W. Burbank, University of California Santa Barbara E. Margaret Burbidge, University of California San Diego Emerita John Cairns, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Mark A. Cane, Columbia University Claude Canizares, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Marian Carlson, Columbia University John Carlson, Yale University Stephen Carpenter, University of Wisconsin-Madison Sean B. Carroll, University of Wisconsin-Madison Emily A. Carter, Princeton University Katherine Cashman, University of Bristol Juan Carlos Castilla, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Anny Cazenave, Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales Thure E. Cerling, University of Utah Sylvia T. Ceyer, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Martin Chalfie, Columbia University F. Stuart Chapin, University of Alaska Roger Chevalier, University of Virginia Steven Chu, Stanford University Ralph Cicerone, Professor Emeritus, University of California David E. Clapham, Harvard Medical School George Clark, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Michael T. Clegg, University of California Irvine Claude Cohen-Tannoudji, Laboratoire Kastler Brossel Jonathan J. Cole, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Rita R. Colwell, University of Maryland Karen S. Cook, Stanford University Richard M. Cowling, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University James Cronin, University of Chicago Paul J. Crutzen, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry Roy Curtiss III, University of Florida Gretchen Daily, Stanford University G. Brent Dalrymple, Oregon State University Sir Partha Dasgupta, University of Cambridge Earl W. Davie, University of Washington Russ E. Davis, University of California San Diego Marc Davis, University of California Berkeley Ruth DeFries, Columbia University Edward F. DeLong, University of Hawaii Manoa David L. Denlinger, Ohio State University George Denton, University of Maine Donald DePaolo, Univerity of California Berkeley Bob Dickinson, University of Texas Rodolfo Dirzo, Stanford University Michael J. Donoghue, Yale University Russell F. Doolittle, University of California San Diego Dennis A. Dougherty, California Institute of Technology John E. Dowling, Harvard University Bruce Draine, Princeton University Alan Dressler, Carnegie Institution for Science Thomas Dunne, University of California Santa Barbara Joseph R. Ecker, Member, National Academy of Sciences R. Lawrence Edwards, University of Minnesota Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University John M. Eiler, California Institute of Technology David Eisenberg, University of California Los Angeles Richard Eisenberg, University of Rochester W. Gary Ernst, Stanford University Mark Estelle, University of California San Diego James A. Estes, University of California Santa Cruz Paul Falkowski, Rutgers University Nina V. Fedoroff, Pennsylvania State University Emerita Juli Feigon, University of California Los Angeles Joseph Felsenstein, University of Washington Alex Filippenko, University of California Berkeley Gerald D. Fischbach, Simons Foundation, Chief Scientist Edmond H. Fischer, University of Washington Donald Forsyth, Brown University Stewart Fotheringham, Arizona State University Wendy Freedman, University of Chicago Katherine H. Freeman, Pennsylvania State University Perry Allen Frey, University of Wisconsin-Madison Margaret T. Fuller, Stanford University Douglas J. Futuyma, Stony Brook University Fred H. Gage, Salk Institute for Biological Research Chris Garrett, University of Victoria Neil Gehrels, Member, National Academy of Sciences Reinhard Genzel, Max-Planck-Institut für Extraterrestrische Physik Howard Georgi, Harvard University Charles Gilbert, The Rockefeller University Sheldon Glashow, Boston University Roy Glauber, Harvard University Alexander N. Glazer, University of California Berkeley Peter H. Gleick, Pacific Institute Stephen P. Goff, Columbia University Robert B. Goldberg, University of California Los Angeles Peter Goldreich, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton Michael Goodchild, University of California Santa Barbara Richard Goody, Harvard University Fred Gould, North Carolina State University Harry Gray, California Institute of Technology Paul Greengard, Rockefeller University Diane E. Griffin, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health David Gross, University of California Santa Barbara Charles G. Gross, Princeton University Carol A. Gross, University of California San Francisco Timothy Grove, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Robert H. Grubbs, California Institute of Technology Jim Gunn, Princeton University Sarah Hake, Agricultural Research Service Alexander Halliday, University of Oxford Jim Hansen, Columbia University Susan Hanson, Clark University Stanley Hart, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Daniel L. Hartl, Harvard University Dennis Hartmann, University of Washington Robert Haselkorn, The University of Chicago Alan Hastings, University of California Davis Robert M. Hauser, University of Wisconsin-Madison Stephen Hawking, Cambridge University Wick C. Haxton, Univerity of California Berkeley John Hayes, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Martha P. Haynes, Cornell University Timothy Heckman, Johns Hopkins University Carl Heiles, University of California Berkeley Lars Hernquist, Harvard University Dudley Herschbach, Harvard University John G. Hildebrand, University of Arizona David M. Hillis, University of Texas Sarah Hobbie, University of Minnesota Bert Hoelldobler, Arizona State University Paul F. Hoffman, University of Victoria Albrecht W. Hofmann, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry Sir Brian Hoskins, Imperial College London & University of Reading Andre T. Jagendorf, Cornell University Daniel H. Janzen, University of Pennsylvania J.R. Jokipii, University of Arizona Tom Jordan, University of Southern California Jean Jouzel, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climate et de l'Environnement William A. Jury, University of California Riverside H. Ronald Kaback, University of California Los Angeles Thomas Kailath, Stanford University Peter M. Kareiva, University of California Los Angeles David Karl, University of Hawaii Harvey Karten, Professor Emeritus, University of California San Diego Guinevere Kauffmann, Max Planck Institute for Astrophysics Steve A. Kay, University of Southern California Paul Kay, International Computer Science Institute Peter Kelemen, Columbia University Kenneth Kellermann, National Radio Astronomy Observatory Donald Kennedy, Stanford University Charles Kennel, University of California San Diego Robert C. Kennicutt, Cambridge University Wolfgang Ketterle, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Margaret Kidwell, University of Arizona Susan W. Kieffer, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Peter S. Kim, Stanford University Patrick V. Kirch, University of California Berkeley Margaret Kivelson, University of California Los Angeles Daniel Kleppner, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Catherine L. Kling, Iowa State University Judith P. Klinman, University of California Berkeley Eric I. Knudsen, Stanford University School of Medicine Brian Koblika, Stanford University School of Medicine M.A.R. Koehl, Univerity of California Berkeley David Kohlstedt, University of Minnesota Sir Hans Kornberg, Boston University John Krebs, University of Oxford Shrinivas Kulkarni, California Institute of Technology J. Clark Lagarias, University of California Davis Kurt Lambeck, Australian National University Eric Lambin, Stanford University Arthur Landy, Brown University Charles H. Langmuir, Harvard University Brian A. Larkins, University of Nebraska, Lincoln John H. Law, University of Arizona Emeritus Sir John Lawton, Former Chief Executive, UK Natural Environment Research Council Yuan Lee, Academica Sinica Taiwan Richard E. Lenski, Michigan State University Simon Levin, Princeton University Michael Levitt, Stanford University School of Medicine Gene E. Likens, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Laszlo Lorand, Feinberg Medical School Northwestern University Emeritus C. Owen Lovejoy, Kent State University Jane Lubchenco, Oregon State University Jonathan I. Lunine, Cornell University Michael Lynch, Indiana University Akin Mabogunje, Foundation for Development and Environmental Initiatives Trudy Mackay, North Carolina State University Anthony P. Mahowald, University of Chicago Syukuro Manabe, Princeton University Joyce Marcus, University of Michigan Rudolph A. Marcus, California Institute of Technology Douglas S. Massey, Princeton University Pamela A. Matson, Stanford University Rowena G. Matthews, University of Michigan Emerita Michel G. Mayor, University of Geneva Bonnie J. McCay, Rutgers University Richard McCray, University of Colorado Bruce S. McEwen, Rockefeller University Fred McLafferty, Cornell University Jim McWilliams, University of California Los Angeles Jerrold Meinwald, Cornell University Jerry M. Melillo, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole Henry J. Melosh, Purdue University Sabeeha Merchant, University of California Los Angeles Joachim Messing, Rutgers University Mario Molina, University of California San Diego Harold Mooney, Stanford University Peter B. Moore, Yale University James M. Moran, Member, National Academy of Sciences Nancy Moran, University of Texas M. Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University Ellen S. Mosley-Thompson, Ohio State University Walter Munk, University of California San Diego Royce Murray, Univeristy of North Carolina Sidney Nagel, University of Chicago Ramesh Narayan, Harvard University Jeremy Nathans, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine Eugene W. Nester, University of Washington William T. Newsome, Stanford University Richard P. Novick, New York University School of Medicine Paul E. Olsen, Columbia University Peter Olson, Johns Hopkins University Neil D. Opdyke, University of Florida Jeremiah Ostriker, Columbia University Sarah Otto, University of British Columbia Sir Ronald Oxburgh, Cambridge University Stephen Pacala, Member, National Academy of Sciences Norman R. Pace, University of Colorado Richard D. Palmiter, University of Washington School of Medicine Stephen Palumbi, Stanford University Joseph Pedlosky, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Jim Peebles, Princeton University Gordon Pettengill, Massachusetts Institute of Technology S. George Philander, Princeton University William Phillips, Member, National Academy of Sciences Dolores R. Piperno, Member, National Academy of Sciences Terry Plank, Columbia University William H. Press, University of Texas Frank Press, Member, National Academy of Sciences George W. Preston, Carnegie Institution for Science Peter H. Raven, Missouri Botanical Garden Maureen E. Raymo, Columbia University Martin Rees, Cambridge University Peter Rhines, University of Washington Frank Richter, University of Chicago Robert E. Ricklefs, University of Missouri Lynn M. Riddiford, University of Washington George Rieke, University of Arizona Marcia Rieke, University of Arizona Adam Riess, Johns Hopkins University Morton Roberts, National Radio Astronomy Observatory Gene E. Robinson, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign A. Kimball Romney, University of California Irvine Michael Rosbash, Brandeis University Mal Ruderman, Columbia University Roberta L. Rudnick, University of California Santa Barbara Gary Ruvkun, Massachusetts General Hospital Roald Sagdeev, University of Maryland Pedro A. Sanchez, Columbia University David Sandwell, University of California San Diego Joshua R. Sanes, Harvard University Daniel L. Schacter, Harvard University Paul Schechter, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Randy W. Schekman, University of California Berkeley Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research David W. Schindler, University of Alberta Bill Schlesinger, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Johanna Schmitt, University of California Davis Robert J. Scholes, University of the Witswatersrand Julian Schroeder, University of California San Diego Gerald Schubert, Universty of California Los Angeles Matthew P. Scott, President, Carnegie Institution for Science Sara Seager, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Ronald R. Sederoff, North Carolina State University Jeff Severinghaus, University of California San Diego Irwin Shapiro, Harvard University Carla J. Shatz, Stanford University Peter Shearer, University of California San Diego Frank Shu, University of California San Diego Kerry Sieh, Nanyang Technological University James Simons, Chairman, Simons Foundation Norman H. Sleep, Stanford University Susan Solomon, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Pamela S. Soltis, University of Florida Alfred Sommer, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health David Spergel, Princeton University Nicholas C. Spitzer, University of California San Diego Charles Steidel, California Institute of Technology Thomas A. Steitz, Yale University Edward Stolper, California Institute of Technology Howard A. Stone, Princeton University Joan E. Strassmann, Washington University, St. Louis Timothy Swager, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lynn R. Sykes, Columbia University Emeritus Harvey Tananbaum, Member, National Academy of Sciences Joseph Taylor, Princeton University Saul A. Teukolsky, Cornell University David Hurst Thomas, American Museum of Natural History Lonnie Thompson, Ohio State University Kip Thorne, Member, National Academy of Sciences James M. Tiedje, Michigan State University Alar Toomre, Massachusetts Institute of technology Scott Tremaine, Institute for Advanced Study Susan Trumbore, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry James Tumlinson, Pennsylvania State University Monica G. Turner, University of Wisconsin-Madison Anthony Tyson, University of California Davis Joan Selverstone, Valentine University of California Los Angeles James L. Van Etten, University of Nebraska Martha Vaughan, Member, National Academy of Sciences Inder Verma, The Salk institute for Biological Studies George Veronis, Yale University Peter H. von Hippel, University of Oregon Gerhard Wagner, Harvard Medical School David B. Wake, University of California Berkeley David Walker, Columbia University John M. Wallace, University of Washington E. Bruce Watson, Member, National Academy of Sciences Steven Weinberg, University of Texas Rainer Weiss, Massachusetts Institute of Technology William J. Welch, University of California Berkeley Mary Jane West-Eberhard, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Emerita Simon D.M. White, Max Planck Institute for Astrophysics Torsten N. Wiesel, President Emeritus, The Rockefeller University Edward O. Wilson, Harvard University Robert W. Wilson, Member, National Academy of Sciences David Wineland, Member, National Academy of Sciences Steven Wofsy, Harvard University Julian Wolpert, Princeton University John Wood, Member, National Academy of Sciences George M. Woodwell, Woods Hole Research Center Stanford E. Woosley, University of California Santa Cruz Carl Wunsch, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Keith Yamamoto, University of California San Francisco Martin Yanofsky, University of California San Diego Tilahun Yilma, University of California Davis William Young, University of California San Diego Mary Lou Zoback, Stanford University Maria T. Zuber, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

^ = letter organizer

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